What Are the Chances of Miscarriage After Hearing a Heartbeat?

Pregnancy can feel like equal parts hope and holding your breath, especially in the early weeks when everything is changing so quickly. All in all, most healthcare providers will say the first 13 weeks of pregnancy are the most critical since rapid growth and development take place during this time. The embryo-turned-fetus develops distinct facial features, limbs, organs, bones, and muscles, and has an assigned sex.

Getting past your first trimester without any complications reduces your risk of miscarriage even further. Still, pregnancy, especially if it’s after a long and difficult fertility journey, is not without anxiety. To help ease some of that worry, let’s take a closer look at what the chances actually are of having a miscarriage after hearing a heartbeat.

Chances of miscarriage after hearing heartbeat

Hearing your baby’s heartbeat for the first time is one of those moments that sticks with you. It’s beautiful, emotional, and for many people, a huge wave of relief. There’s a reason this milestone feels so meaningful. Once an ultrasound confirms cardiac activity, the statistical risk of miscarriage drops sharply. As Dr. Caledonia Buckheit, OB/GYN, explains, “The earliest that fetal cardiac activity can be detected with transvaginal ultrasound is 6 weeks. At 6 weeks with a heartbeat detected, the chance of miscarriage is 9.4%,” which, at 8 weeks, falls to around 3%. This number offers reassurance because a visible heartbeat signals that early development is progressing as expected and that the pregnancy has moved past the highest-risk weeks.

Still, it makes sense if this is your first question after the scan. Worry often comes along for the ride in early pregnancy, even when the numbers look good. Knowing the data can give you something solid to hold on to while you navigate all the feelings that come with building a family.

Miscarriage risk by week after heartbeat

Once a heartbeat is detected, miscarriage risk keeps trending down with each passing week:

• 6 weeks: Around 10% risk after a confirmed heartbeat, since this is still very early and development is rapid and variable.
• 7 weeks: Drops to roughly 5% as early structures stabilize and growth becomes more predictable.
• 8 weeks: About 3%, following ultrasound confirmation of cardiac activity.
• 9 weeks: Falls to about 2% as the embryo transitions into the fetal stage and chromosomal issues are less likely to emerge this late.
• 10 weeks: Approaches 1 to 2% for most pregnancies where development has been normal on scans.
• 11 weeks: Typically near 1%, with many clinicians considering this the point where risk becomes very low.
• 12 weeks: Often under 1% once a fetus has normal growth and a strong heartbeat at this stage.

These numbers are averages and reflect what researchers observed in large cohorts rather than predictions for any one pregnancy. But they do show a clear pattern. With each week that a heartbeat is present and development appears typical, the likelihood of miscarriage steadily decreases, giving many people more room to breathe as they move through the first trimester.

Miscarriage risk calculator after heartbeat

If you’ve ever typed “miscarriage risk calculator after heartbeat” into Google, you’re definitely not alone. Many people look for a tool that can turn all the uncertainty of early pregnancy into a clear number. While online calculators can offer general reassurance, they’re built on population averages, not the full picture of your individual health.

Your personal risk is shaped by several factors, including gestational age, ultrasound findings, age, medical history (particularly a history of prior miscarriage), and any conditions that affect pregnancy outcomes. Even the most sophisticated calculators can’t account for all of that, which is why they should be viewed as broad estimates rather than precise predictions.

And if you want clarity about your own pregnancy, your healthcare provider is always the best person to interpret your scans and talk through your specific risk.

Rescripted Blog Managing Editor, Tassia O’Callaghan, shared her experience with miscarriage risk calculator tools: “As a generally anxious person, I initially found some comfort in the miscarriage reassurance calculators. And it was beautiful hearing our baby’s heartbeat at 6 weeks. After that, we thought we were in the clear. Unfortunately, during my 12-week scan, we were told that, about a week after our previous scan, our fetus had stopped growing. And at 13 weeks, I had a miscarriage. Then, I learned that, even though I thought I’d made it to 12 weeks with a less than 1% chance of loss, the numbers don’t really mean anything to my individual situation.”

Why heartbeat confirmation matters

Heartbeat confirmation matters because it reflects a key developmental shift. When an ultrasound picks up cardiac activity, it shows that implantation has succeeded, the embryo has organized into the structures needed for growth, and the pregnancy has progressed beyond the biochemical stage. A chemical pregnancy ends before anything is visible on ultrasound. A clinical pregnancy with a heartbeat means development is far enough along to measure and monitor, which is why this moment carries so much weight.

It’s also the point where miscarriage risk drops sharply. Most very early losses happen before cardiac activity appears, usually due to chromosomal problems that prevent the embryo from growing. Once a heartbeat is present, the odds of continuing rise significantly. According to a 2010 review for the Donald School of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology, the presence of cardiac activity is one of the strongest indicators that a pregnancy is progressing normally. This is why so many people breathe a little easier after this scan. It’s a meaningful sign that your pregnancy has made it through the earliest, most unpredictable stage.

What is the chance of miscarriage in general?

For generally healthy women in the United States, the miscarriage risk is between 10-25%, according to the American Pregnancy Association. Not surprisingly, as you age, your risk of miscarriage increases to 20-35% by the time you’re 35 and 50% by the time you’re 45. And as the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists explains, most miscarriages (80%) take place during the first trimester (weeks 0-13), 1-5% take place after the 13-week mark, and any miscarriage that happens after 20 weeks is considered stillbirth.

Once a heartbeat is present, the likelihood of miscarriage drops because the pregnancy has already cleared the earliest stage where chromosomal issues are most likely to cause a loss. This is why so many people feel a sense of relief after that first scan. It signals that development is on track and that the odds of the pregnancy continuing improve from here.

Reasons for miscarriage after heartbeat

Miscarriage can still happen after a heartbeat is seen, and while the risk is much lower at that point, it isn’t zero. The most common reason is still chromosomal abnormalities that prevent the pregnancy from developing normally. Even though many of these issues cause loss before cardiac activity appears, some aren’t detected by the body until later. Maternal health conditions like uncontrolled diabetes, thyroid disorders, autoimmune conditions, or severe infections can also play a role, although these are far less common than genetic causes. According to a 2000 article for Best Practice & Research Clinical Obstetrics & Gynecology, chromosomal abnormalities account for about 50% of early pregnancy losses and remain a major contributor to losses that happen after a heartbeat is confirmed.

Losses that happen in the later part of the first trimester or early second trimester look different from very early miscarriages. They’re less often due to implantation problems and more likely related to factors like structural fetal issues, placental complications, or untreated underlying medical conditions. Even so, most of these causes aren’t something a pregnant person could have prevented. They’re biological events that happen outside of anyone’s control, which is why self-blame has no place here.

Missed miscarriage after heartbeat

A missed miscarriage happens when the pregnancy has stopped developing, but there are no obvious signs like cramping or bleeding. Many people discover it only at a routine ultrasound when the gestational sac or embryo measures behind or there’s no longer cardiac activity. It can feel especially shocking when a heartbeat was seen earlier, because everything may have seemed completely normal.

Once a heartbeat is confirmed, a missed miscarriage becomes much less common. Most studies show that the overall miscarriage risk drops significantly at this point, and missed miscarriages are only a fraction of those losses. Chromosomal abnormalities remain the leading cause, even in later first-trimester losses, but the likelihood of this happening after a strong, appropriately timed heartbeat is low. Many people with a missed miscarriage notice no symptoms at all, which is why it’s often discovered unexpectedly during a follow-up scan.

As Tassia shared, “We were blindsided when we found out our fetus had stopped growing at 8 weeks during our 12-week scan. Just a few short weeks earlier, we’d heard their heartbeat and seen our little bean, flickering on the screen. It felt sickening to know that I was carrying something that had stopped growing weeks before.”

Chances of missed miscarriage after heartbeat

Research that looks specifically at missed miscarriage risk after a confirmed heartbeat suggests the numbers are small, often estimated at around 1 to 3% depending on gestational age and other factors. The risk declines with each passing week, and by the time the pregnancy approaches the end of the first trimester, missed miscarriage becomes increasingly rare. While these statistics can’t remove the fear entirely, they do show that once cardiac activity is seen, the odds are very much in your favor.

Miscarriage risk factors

Miscarriage risk factors depend a lot on when the loss happens, so it helps to look at early and later pregnancy separately. In the first trimester, most losses are linked to issues with the embryo or the developing placenta. In the second trimester, the causes shift toward maternal health conditions, infections, or structural factors. Even when a risk factor is present, it doesn’t mean a miscarriage will happen, and many people with several of these risks go on to have healthy pregnancies.

According to the UK National Health Service, factors that can put women at risk of miscarriage in their first trimester include:

• Placenta development problems
• Chromosomal issues, such as too much or too little DNA material, which may originate from the embryo, either parent, or both

Also, according to the NHS, factors that can put women at risk of miscarriage in their second trimester include:

• Previous miscarriages
• Medical conditions like PCOS, diabetes, thyroid disorders, autoimmune diseases, and clotting disorders
• Infections like chlamydia, gonorrhea, syphilis, and bacterial vaginosis
• Certain medications, including misoprostol used for stomach ulcers and methotrexate used for conditions like rheumatoid arthritis
• Short cervix
• Abnormal womb structure
• Malnutrition
• Excessive drug, alcohol, or caffeine use
• Being under or overweight

Even with these lists, context matters. Many of these factors are manageable with medical support, and most pregnancies aren’t defined by a single risk. Understanding what’s relevant to you can help guide conversations with your healthcare team so you get the reassurance and care you deserve.

No fetal pole at 6 weeks: Should I be worried?

Being told that there’s no fetal pole at 6 weeks on an ultrasound report can be unnerving, but it’s often still within the range of normal development. The fetal pole is the early embryo that becomes visible on a transvaginal ultrasound once the pregnancy has progressed past the gestational sac stage. It usually appears somewhere between 5.5 and 6.5 weeks, but that window depends on when ovulation actually happened, how long implantation took, and when the scan was done.

Many people are given estimated dates based on a textbook 28-day cycle, but real cycles vary. That means a pregnancy that’s assumed to be 6 weeks may actually be 5 weeks or even a few days earlier. According to the UK NHS, early ultrasounds can sometimes be inconclusive simply because the pregnancy isn’t far enough along for certain structures to be visible. In these cases, the standard recommendation is to repeat the scan in about a week, which allows enough time for measurable growth if the pregnancy is developing normally.

When should you be concerned? If there’s no fetal pole and no growth on a follow-up scan after an appropriate interval, your provider may look at additional signs like hCG trends or the size of the gestational sac to determine whether the pregnancy is viable. But a single early scan without a fetal pole isn’t enough to draw conclusions. Timing variations are extremely common, and many pregnancies that don’t show a fetal pole at 6 weeks look completely on track just a few days later.

And if you’re not sure if your timing is off, but you know when you ovulated, you can calculate your gestation by counting the weeks from the day of ovulation and adding 2 weeks (since most pregnancies are calculated in the ‘standard’ 28-day cycle, which assumes ovulation on cycle day 14).

If you’re in this waiting period, you’re not doing anything wrong. Early pregnancy can be unpredictable, and most of the time, the next scan provides the clarity you need.

Types of miscarriage: A quick guide

Miscarriage is an umbrella term that covers several different experiences, each with its own causes and timing. Understanding the main types can help you make sense of what your doctor is looking for and why certain tests or follow-up scans are recommended.

1. Chemical pregnancy

A chemical pregnancy is a very early loss that happens soon after implantation, often before an ultrasound can detect anything. hCG rises briefly, then drops as the pregnancy stops developing. These early losses represent an estimated 8 to 33% of all pregnancies and 18 to 22% of IVF pregnancies.

2. Ectopic pregnancy

An ectopic pregnancy occurs when a fertilized egg implants outside the uterus, usually in a fallopian tube. It can’t result in a viable pregnancy and requires medical care to prevent complications. Ectopic pregnancies account for up to 2% of all pregnancies.

3. Missed miscarriage

A missed miscarriage happens when the embryo stops growing but the body hasn’t recognized the loss yet. There may be no symptoms, and it’s often found on a routine scan when no heartbeat is detected. Missed miscarriages occur in about 8 to 20% of clinically confirmed intrauterine pregnancies.

4. Blighted ovum

A blighted ovum (anembryonic pregnancy) occurs when a gestational sac forms, but there’s no developing embryo. The body may show normal early pregnancy symptoms until the loss is discovered on ultrasound, usually between 8 and 13 weeks.

5. Threatened miscarriage

A threatened miscarriage involves vaginal bleeding in early pregnancy, but the cervix remains closed, and the pregnancy may continue normally. But according to the UK NHS, many people with early bleeding go on to have healthy pregnancies. Ultrasound and monitoring help determine next steps.

6. Recurrent miscarriage

Recurrent miscarriage is defined as two or more consecutive losses, and it affects about 1% of couples trying to conceive. Causes vary and may include genetic factors, uterine differences, autoimmune conditions, or unexplained reasons. Evaluation with a specialist is recommended.

7. Molar pregnancy

A molar pregnancy occurs when fertilization goes wrong and abnormal tissue grows instead of a normal placenta. It can’t support a developing embryo and usually ends early. Molar pregnancies are rare, occurring in about 1 in 1,000 pregnancies. As Dr. Buckheit explains, “Molar pregnancies often require surgical management with dilation and curettage (D&C) and monitoring of beta hCG levels for months after the loss.”

8. Vanishing twin

A vanishing twin occurs when one embryo in a twin pregnancy stops developing and is reabsorbed, usually in the first trimester. The remaining fetus typically continues to grow normally. It’s more often seen in pregnancies monitored early with ultrasound. Vanishing twin miscarriages are estimated to take place in around 36% of twin pregnancies and in 50% of pregnancies that begin with 3+ ultrasonography and transvaginal sonography, three or more gestational sacs.) gestational sacs.

Special considerations

Some pregnancies come with extra variables that can shift miscarriage statistics, even after a heartbeat is seen. Twin pregnancies, IVF pregnancies, and those involving genetic screening each follow slightly different patterns that are helpful to understand when looking for reassurance or clarity. These situations don’t automatically mean something will go wrong, but they do change how clinicians interpret risk. Knowing what’s typical for your specific scenario can make the numbers feel a little less abstract and a lot more grounded in your reality.

Miscarriage risk with twins after seeing heartbeat

According to the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, twin pregnancies carry a slightly higher miscarriage rate overall compared with singleton pregnancies, simply because there are more variables involved in early development. Even after heartbeats are detected, it’s still possible for one embryo to stop developing, a situation known as vanishing twin syndrome, which often happens in the first trimester and may not affect the remaining fetus. Once both twins have strong cardiac activity and appropriate growth, the risk of losing both pregnancies becomes much lower, but still higher than with a single baby due to the additional demands on the uterus and placenta.

Euploid embryo miscarriage rate after heartbeat

For IVF patients, a euploid embryo (one that has been genetically screened and confirmed chromosomally normal) significantly reduces the chance of miscarriage. Once a heartbeat is seen, the risk becomes even lower because the embryo has already passed several developmental checkpoints. Studies on PGT-A screened embryos show that euploid pregnancies have miscarriage rates in the single digits, often cited around 5% or less, though exact numbers vary by age and clinic. This reflects the strong link between chromosomal normality and early pregnancy viability.

Moving forward after hearing the heartbeat

Even with reassuring news, it’s completely normal to feel a mix of relief and lingering anxiety. Early pregnancy can be an emotional balancing act, and hearing the heartbeat doesn’t automatically switch off all worry. That said, it’s worth holding onto the numbers. According to the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, up to 26% of all pregnancies and about 10% of clinically recognized pregnancies end in miscarriage, but once a heartbeat is seen, the risk drops to roughly 3% and keeps declining as the weeks progress.

If something feels off or you have symptoms like heavy bleeding, severe pain, fever, or a sudden loss of pregnancy symptoms that concern you, it’s always appropriate to reach out to your provider. You deserve reassurance, and your care team is there for that. At the same time, try to give yourself permission not to monitor every sensation. Being informed helps, but being hyper-vigilant can make the waiting feel heavier than it needs to be.

And if you do end up facing a loss, none of it is your fault. Most miscarriages happen because of chromosomal issues or other factors beyond anyone’s control, not because of something you did or didn’t do. Self-compassion matters here more than anything. Lean on support systems, whether that’s your partner, a friend, a therapist, or communities that understand how complicated and tender this journey can be. You don’t have to navigate it alone.

From Tassia: “After our loss, I found solace in knowing that I wasn’t alone in this and sharing my story. So many amazing people have stories of pregnancy loss. It’s a horrible club to be a part of, but there are great people in it.”